Will EJAE appear at the 2026 NFL Christmas Day halftime show?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 87¢ · $570 held · ends Dec 26

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Dec 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$569.99

Combined PnL

$5.94

Smart Money Entry

88.2¢ → 86.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$532.97

Total Shares623

Combined PnL-$15.11

Yes4 traders

Total Value$37.02

Total Shares272

Combined PnL+$21.05

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 88.8¢	$294.2	$254	-$8.67	31% 146-327 (473)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 89¢	$93.45	$89.77	-$3.68	16% 22-118 (140)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 88¢	$78.32	$76.1	-$2.22	12% 20-144 (164)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 89¢	$74.76	$71.82	-$2.94	10% 15-130 (145)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100	Noavg 81¢	$38.88	$41.28	+$2.4	48% 1238-1323 (2561)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$16.5	$14.5	-$2	13% 76-495 (571)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$12.69	$10.97	+$27.11	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$11.73	$7.95	-$3.78	40% 14-21 (35)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$3.88	$3.6	-$0.27	53% 1572-1421 (2993)

Haradwaith

Invested

$294.2

Value

$254

PnL

-$8.67

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$93.45

Value

$89.77

PnL

-$3.68

Record

16%

22-118 (140)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$78.32

Value

$76.1

PnL

-$2.22

Record

12%

20-144 (164)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$74.76

Value

$71.82

PnL

-$2.94

Record

10%

15-130 (145)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100

Invested

$38.88

Value

$41.28

PnL

+$2.4

Record

48%

1238-1323 (2561)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.5

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$2

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.69

Value

$10.97

PnL

+$27.11

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.73

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$3.78

Record

40%

14-21 (35)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.88

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.