Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Eitan Ginzburg be the next Speaker of the Knesset?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $51 held · ends Mar 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Mar 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$51.18

Combined PnL

-$20.9

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$49.98

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$0.41

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.21

Total Shares2,412

Combined PnL-$21.31

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$30.15	$29.99	+$0.02	29% 892-2174 (3066)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$19.6	$19.99	+$0.39	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$8.05	$0.5	-$7.55	52% 1614-1484 (3098)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.16	$0.26	-$3.9	47% 4803-5424 (10227)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$56.93	$0.18	-$3.16	26% 116-337 (453)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.18	$0.18	+$0	40% 1474-2196 (3670)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.73	$0.05	-$0.69	30% 2939-6893 (9832)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$10.88	$0.04	-$5.84	40% 3231-4852 (8083)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.11	$0.01	-$0.11	35% 512-942 (1454)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.07	$0	-$0.06	37% 3439-5885 (9324)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$30.15

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

29%

892-2174 (3066)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.05

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$7.55

Record

52%

1614-1484 (3098)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.16

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$3.9

Record

47%

4803-5424 (10227)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.93

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$3.16

Record

26%

116-337 (453)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

1474-2196 (3670)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.69

Record

30%

2939-6893 (9832)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.88

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$5.84

Record

40%

3231-4852 (8083)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.11

Record

35%

512-942 (1454)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

PnL

-$0.06

Record

37%

3439-5885 (9324)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.