Will EH Bildu win exactly 8 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $235 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$235.2
-$0.84
66.8¢ → 64¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 66.9¢ | $131.24 | $128.81 | -$2.43 | 41% 3115-4481 (7596) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $69.28 | $66.18 | -$3.1 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $13.4 | $15 | +$1.6 | 53% 5656-5081 (10737) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $13.2 | $15 | +$1.8 | 12% 21-154 (175) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $16.15 | $10.22 | +$1.29 | 53% 40-36 (76) |
Invested
$131.24
Value
$128.81
PnL
-$2.43
Record
41%
3115-4481 (7596)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$69.28
Value
$66.18
PnL
-$3.1
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$13.4
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.6
Record
53%
5656-5081 (10737)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.8
Record
12%
21-154 (175)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$16.15
Value
$10.22
PnL
+$1.29
Record
53%
40-36 (76)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.