Will Edmonton Oilers be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 83¢ · $80 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$79.88
$0.28
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
155h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $44.9 | $44.87 | -$0.03 | 41% 3118-4481 (7599) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $20.08 | $20.09 | +$0.01 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $8.79 | $8.79 | -$0 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $3.72 | $4.07 | +$0.35 | 18% 15-67 (82) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $2.12 | $2.06 | -$0.06 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
Invested
$44.9
Value
$44.87
PnL
-$0.03
Record
41%
3118-4481 (7599)
Invested
$20.08
Value
$20.09
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
Invested
$8.79
Value
$8.79
PnL
-$0
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$3.72
Value
$4.07
PnL
+$0.35
Record
18%
15-67 (82)
Invested
$2.12
Value
$2.06
PnL
-$0.06
Record
39%
1053-1631 (2684)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.