Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ebuka Okorie win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $6 held · ends May 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$5.84
-$11.04
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $14.71 | $5.33 | -$5.88 | 40% 3240-4885 (8125) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $1.75 | $0.21 | -$1.53 | 47% 4818-5478 (10296) |
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.11 | $0.11 | +$0 | — 0-3 (3) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.83 | $0.1 | -$0.73 | — 3-14 (17) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $202.76 | $0.06 | -$2.7 | 53% 6071-5438 (11509) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.23 | $0.03 | -$0.2 | 39% 63-100 (163) |
Invested
$14.71
Value
$5.33
PnL
-$5.88
Record
40%
3240-4885 (8125)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.75
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$1.53
Record
47%
4818-5478 (10296)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.11
PnL
+$0
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$0.83
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.73
Record
—
3-14 (17)
Invested
$202.76
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$2.7
Record
53%
6071-5438 (11509)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.2
Record
39%
63-100 (163)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.