Will "Ebenezer" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $257 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$257.17
-$51.43
96.3¢ → 95¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Mature
46h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $102.11 | $100.7 | -$1.42 | 30% 189-443 (632) |
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 95.9¢ | $100.7 | $99.75 | -$0.94 | 41% 1573-2277 (3850) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $28.5 | $28.77 | +$0.27 | 29% 1063-2631 (3694) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $107.3 | $17.45 | -$46.25 | 39% 3489-5413 (8902) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $9.5 | $9.59 | +$0.09 | 39% 186-294 (480) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $16.17 | $0.75 | -$3.18 | 21% 6-22 (28) |
Invested
$102.11
Value
$100.7
PnL
-$1.42
Record
30%
189-443 (632)
Invested
$100.7
Value
$99.75
PnL
-$0.94
Record
41%
1573-2277 (3850)
Invested
$28.5
Value
$28.77
PnL
+$0.27
Record
29%
1063-2631 (3694)
Invested
$107.3
Value
$17.45
PnL
-$46.25
Record
39%
3489-5413 (8902)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$9.59
PnL
+$0.09
Record
39%
186-294 (480)
Invested
$16.17
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$3.18
Record
21%
6-22 (28)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.