Will "Ebenezer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 87¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$130.78
$0.42
89.2¢ → 87¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $53.7 | $53.68 | -$0.02 | 40% 1458-2159 (3617) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $20.27 | $20.58 | +$0.31 | 10% 3-28 (31) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $18 | $17.89 | -$0.11 | 31% 2807-6229 (9036) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $17.8 | $17.8 | +$0 | 51% 4719-4553 (9272) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $11.84 | $11.89 | +$0.05 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $8.75 | $8.95 | +$0.2 | 48% 96-103 (199) |
Invested
$53.7
Value
$53.68
PnL
-$0.02
Record
40%
1458-2159 (3617)
Invested
$20.27
Value
$20.58
PnL
+$0.31
Record
10%
3-28 (31)
Invested
$18
Value
$17.89
PnL
-$0.11
Record
31%
2807-6229 (9036)
balthazar<$100Invested
$17.8
Value
$17.8
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
4719-4553 (9272)
Invested
$11.84
Value
$11.89
PnL
+$0.05
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$8.95
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
96-103 (199)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.