Will "Ebenezer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 75¢ · $69 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$69.02
-$6.68
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $22.5 | $20.7 | -$1.8 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $16 | $13.8 | -$2.2 | 51% 4719-4553 (9272) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $15.4 | $13.8 | -$1.6 | 31% 2807-6229 (9036) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $10 | $8.21 | -$1.79 | 41% 3141-4503 (7644) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $6.9 | $7.4 | +$0.5 | 48% 96-103 (199) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $4.9 | $5.1 | +$0.21 | 53% 5734-5129 (10863) |
Invested
$22.5
Value
$20.7
PnL
-$1.8
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16
Value
$13.8
PnL
-$2.2
Record
51%
4719-4553 (9272)
Invested
$15.4
Value
$13.8
PnL
-$1.6
Record
31%
2807-6229 (9036)
Invested
$10
Value
$8.21
PnL
-$1.79
Record
41%
3141-4503 (7644)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$7.4
PnL
+$0.5
Record
48%
96-103 (199)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
5734-5129 (10863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.