Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 15 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Ebenezer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 39¢ · $286 held · ends Nov 15

Yes61¢No39¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$285.94

Combined PnL

$170.51

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 39¢

-27% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$285.93

Total Shares583

Combined PnL+$170.51

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchCTR	Noavg 58.4¢	$119.99	$74.73	-$15.26	72% 823-323 (1146)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$59	$63.44	+$4.44	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 54.3¢	$225.86	$31.94	+$68.2	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$21.2	$19.2	-$2	39% 216-342 (558)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 42¢	$130.02	$18.26	+$87.24	44% 5031-6456 (11487)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 95¢	$28.5	$14.4	-$14.1	34% 231-458 (689)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$20.4	$14.4	-$6	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$13.8	$14.4	+$0.6	29% 62-155 (217)
GR graynotebook19CTR	Noavg 43¢	$103.68	$13.65	+$45.71	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 40.4¢	$4.31	$4.86	+$0.55	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$4.38	$4.64	+$0.25	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$3.44	$3.73	+$0.29	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$3.38	$3.66	+$0.28	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$2.23	$2.36	+$0.13	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.28	+$0.18	58% 699-503 (1202)

PoligarchCTR

Invested

$119.99

Value

$74.73

PnL

-$15.26

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$59

Value

$63.44

PnL

+$4.44

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$225.86

Value

$31.94

PnL

+$68.2

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$21.2

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$2

Record

39%

216-342 (558)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$130.02

Value

$18.26

PnL

+$87.24

Record

44%

5031-6456 (11487)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$14.4

PnL

-$14.1

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$14.4

PnL

-$6

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$0.6

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

graynotebook19CTR

Invested

$103.68

Value

$13.65

PnL

+$45.71

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$4.31

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$0.55

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$4.38

Value

$4.64

PnL

+$0.25

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.29

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$3.38

Value

$3.66

PnL

+$0.28

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 39%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.