Will Dune: Part Three win Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 52¢ · $265 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$265.27

Combined PnL

$3.53

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 52¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$226.72

Total Shares420

Combined PnL+$9.2

Yes2 traders

Total Value$38.54

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$5.67

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+70 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Late

112h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 48.4¢	$46.23	$51.57	+$5.34	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
VE VerilyWinningly<$100	Noavg 54¢	$64.35	$50.72	-$0.5	27% 357-985 (1342)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 48¢	$36	$40.5	+$4.5	4% 14-366 (380)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 54¢	$32.4	$32.4	-$0	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$30.41	$25.64	-$4.77	— 3-6 (9)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 54¢	$16.2	$16.2	+$0	11% 28-230 (258)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$13.8	$12.9	-$0.9	41% 2924-4137 (7061)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 54.3¢	$10.42	$10.37	-$0.05	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 54¢	$10.3	$10.3	+$0	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 54¢	$9.26	$9.26	+$0	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.7	-$0.05	39% 1005-1573 (2578)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.7	-$0.05	4% 17-463 (480)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$46.23

Value

$51.57

PnL

+$5.34

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

VerilyWinningly<$100

Invested

$64.35

Value

$50.72

PnL

-$0.5

Record

27%

357-985 (1342)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$40.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

14-366 (380)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$32.4

Value

$32.4

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.41

Value

$25.64

PnL

-$4.77

Record

—

3-6 (9)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$0

Record

11%

28-230 (258)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.8

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$0.9

Record

41%

2924-4137 (7061)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.42

Value

$10.37

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.3

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.26

Value

$9.26

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.05

Record

39%

1005-1573 (2578)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.05

Record

17-463 (480)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+70 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Late

112h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.