Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 110m and 130m?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 71¢ · $124 held · ends Dec 20
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$124.45
$1.32
71.4¢ → 71¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $33.17 | $32.25 | -$0.92 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $29.48 | $31.24 | +$1.76 | — 0-12 (12) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $29.37 | $27.36 | -$2.01 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $21.9 | $20.4 | -$1.5 | 28% 827-2133 (2960) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $9.2 | $13.2 | +$4 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
Invested
$33.17
Value
$32.25
PnL
-$0.92
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$29.48
Value
$31.24
PnL
+$1.76
Record
—
0-12 (12)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.37
Value
$27.36
PnL
-$2.01
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$20.4
PnL
-$1.5
Record
28%
827-2133 (2960)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$13.2
PnL
+$4
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.