Will "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 130m?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 59¢ · $456 held · ends Dec 20
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$455.72
$13.18
62.4¢ → 58.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Noavg 64¢ | $138.88 | $144.31 | +$5.43 | — 1-10 (11) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 57.5¢ | $104.85 | $105.67 | +$0.82 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 65¢ | $103.2 | $105.58 | +$2.38 | — 0-12 (12) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $63 | $66.5 | +$3.5 | 23% 510-1692 (2202) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $19.5 | $19.95 | +$0.45 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $12.8 | $13.4 | +$0.6 | 52% 5311-4816 (10127) |
Invested
$138.88
Value
$144.31
PnL
+$5.43
Record
—
1-10 (11)
Invested
$104.85
Value
$105.67
PnL
+$0.82
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
Invested
$103.2
Value
$105.58
PnL
+$2.38
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$63
Value
$66.5
PnL
+$3.5
Record
23%
510-1692 (2202)
Invested
$19.5
Value
$19.95
PnL
+$0.45
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$13.4
PnL
+$0.6
Record
52%
5311-4816 (10127)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.