Will Duke win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 20, 2027

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Tue, Apr 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$294.77

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 87¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,453

Combined PnL+$116.2

Yes7 traders

Total Value$140.95

Total Shares1,081

Combined PnL+$178.57

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hyperlong	Noavg 78.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$116.6	— 1-0 (1)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$322.44	$57.94	-$75.89	18% 855-3957 (4812)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$658.38	$39.57	+$224.27	39% 1089-1676 (2765)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 88¢	$35.2	$34.8	-$0.4	32% 281-585 (866)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$25.31	$26.37	+$1.06	19% 18-76 (94)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$29.9	$8.96	-$3.62	39% 3701-5905 (9606)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$153.01	$3.51	+$30.04	35% 3825-6979 (10804)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$32.79	$2.87	+$0.08	64% 84-48 (132)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.17	$1.74	+$2.63	53% 1854-1648 (3502)

Hyperlong

Invested

$1,112.71

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$116.6

Record

—

1-0 (1)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR

Yes

Invested

$322.44

Value

$57.94

PnL

-$75.89

Record

18%

855-3957 (4812)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$658.38

Value

$39.57

PnL

+$224.27

Record

39%

1089-1676 (2765)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$35.2

Value

$34.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

32%

281-585 (866)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.31

Value

$26.37

PnL

+$1.06

Record

19%

18-76 (94)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.9

Value

$8.96

PnL

-$3.62

Record

39%

3701-5905 (9606)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$153.01

Value

$3.51

PnL

+$30.04

Record

35%

3825-6979 (10804)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.79

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$0.08

Record

64%

84-48 (132)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$2.63

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.