Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 97¢ · $767 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$766.53
-$48.46
80.1¢ → 96.7¢
+21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nostdam | Yesavg 88.6¢ | $490.85 | $344.81 | -$146.05 | 2% 2-108 (110) |
SH shiifoo | Yesavg 69.3¢ | $302.49 | $270.68 | -$31.81 | 62% 1321-794 (2115) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 0.3¢ | $1 | $126.67 | +$125.67 | 41% 3104-4461 (7565) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 32.3¢ | $12 | $14.12 | +$2.11 | 54% 30-26 (56) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $8.64 | $10.26 | +$1.62 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
NostdamInvested
$490.85
Value
$344.81
PnL
-$146.05
Record
2%
2-108 (110)
Invested
$302.49
Value
$270.68
PnL
-$31.81
Record
62%
1321-794 (2115)
Invested
$1
Value
$126.67
PnL
+$125.67
Record
41%
3104-4461 (7565)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$12
Value
$14.12
PnL
+$2.11
Record
54%
30-26 (56)
Invested
$8.64
Value
$10.26
PnL
+$1.62
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.