Will "Drummer Boy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?

17 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$398.04

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 63¢

-19% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$726.43

Total Shares1,854

Combined PnL+$499.22

No17 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,119

Combined PnL-$101.18

Yes — 19%No — 81%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
The-JokerCTR	Yesavg 23.5¢	$352.74	$585.37	+$232.63	68% 1582-745 (2327)
LP lpgb	Noavg 79¢	$631.32	$428.75	-$105.39	27% 659-1763 (2422)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 84.7¢	$271.88	$205.8	-$66.08	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
KA kaxel78	Noavg 77¢	$180.33	$119.42	-$31.32	29% 494-1196 (1690)
balthazar	Noavg 85.1¢	$220.1	$115.25	-$7.97	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 73.3¢	$123.77	$106.45	-$17.33	56% 23834-18418 (42252)
NostdamCTR	Yesavg 11.3¢	$113.42	$103.67	+$272.88	54% 1497-1266 (2763)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 49.6¢	$65.64	$83.39	+$17.76	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 77¢	$54.9	$52.92	-$1.99	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$64.35	$45.75	-$18.6	46% 10314-12253 (22567)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 77¢	$51.51	$43.18	-$8.32	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 84¢	$55.99	$42	-$14	38% 327-535 (862)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 77¢	$50.84	$41.26	-$9.57	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$42.76	$35.07	-$7.69	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 92¢	$25.76	$22.82	-$1.54	26% 7407-21213 (28620)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 48.5¢	$11.64	$15.12	+$3.48	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 74¢	$9.15	$10.83	+$1.68	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$10.88	$10.6	-$0.28	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 5.2¢	$10.07	$9.48	+$158.38	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.92	$2.33	+$1.41	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$2.02	$1.93	-$0.09	17% 1381-6733 (8114)

The-JokerCTR

Yes

Invested

$352.74

Value

$585.37

PnL

+$232.63

Record

68%

1582-745 (2327)

lpgb

Invested

$631.32

Value

$428.75

PnL

-$105.39

Record

27%

659-1763 (2422)

cigarettes

Invested

$271.88

Value

$205.8

PnL

-$66.08

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

kaxel78

Invested

$180.33

Value

$119.42

PnL

-$31.32

Record

29%

494-1196 (1690)

balthazar

Invested

$220.1

Value

$115.25

PnL

-$7.97

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

northdrawer

Invested

$123.77

Value

$106.45

PnL

-$17.33

Record

56%

23834-18418 (42252)

NostdamCTR

Yes

Invested

$113.42

Value

$103.67

PnL

+$272.88

Record

54%

1497-1266 (2763)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$65.64

Value

$83.39

PnL

+$17.76

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$54.9

Value

$52.92

PnL

-$1.99

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$64.35

Value

$45.75

PnL

-$18.6

Record

46%

10314-12253 (22567)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$51.51

Value

$43.18

PnL

-$8.32

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$55.99

Value

$42

PnL

-$14

Record

38%

327-535 (862)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$50.84

Value

$41.26

PnL

-$9.57

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.76

Value

$35.07

PnL

-$7.69

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$25.76

Value

$22.82

PnL

-$1.54

Record

26%

7407-21213 (28620)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$11.64

Value

$15.12

PnL

+$3.48

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.15

Value

$10.83

PnL

+$1.68

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.88

Value

$10.6

PnL

-$0.28

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$10.07

Value

$9.48

PnL

+$158.38

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$1.41

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$2.02

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.09

Record

17%

1381-6733 (8114)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.