Will "Drummer Boy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 9m?

8 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$177.92

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 62¢

-22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 20 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$540.04

Total Shares730

Combined PnL-$59.63

No12 traders

Total Value$479.78

Total Shares1,247

Combined PnL+$237.55

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JokerTheClown	Yesavg 83.3¢	$376.38	$352.64	-$25	51% 4164-4031 (8195)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 69.5¢	$232.48	$175.95	+$250.06	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 69.5¢	$134.84	$119.34	-$29.88
└ No leg	Noavg 9.2¢	$13.5	$56.61	+$279.95
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 13.2¢	$41.26	$120.61	+$79.35	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 80.7¢	$144.46	$98.02	-$30.16	53% 8890-8041 (16931)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Noavg 22.9¢	$49.68	$77.33	+$42.25	29% 494-1196 (1690)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 17.9¢	$46.25	$72.83	+$73.81	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 20.7¢	$34.2	$63.53	+$29.32	56% 23834-18418 (42252)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 48.6¢	$64.32	$53.62	-$10.71	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Noavg 22.3¢	$15.49	$26.38	+$10.9	38% 327-535 (862)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 52.5¢	$21.01	$23.64	+$2.63	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 19.2¢	$15.75	$23.1	+$11.09	27% 659-1763 (2422)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$28.15	$21.01	-$7.14	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 26.4¢	$9.85	$15.09	+$5.23	48% 11465-12267 (23732)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$11.62	$12.88	+$1.25	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 58.2¢	$12.31	$12.33	+$0.02	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$8.89	$10.51	+$1.62	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$12.86	$10.01	-$2.85	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 20.8¢	$5.82	$9.52	-$0.7	26% 7407-21213 (28620)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$11.87	$9.02	-$2.85	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$5	$5.38	+$0.38	42% 2420-3373 (5793)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.92	$2.4	-$0.53	44% 2445-3051 (5496)

JokerTheClown

Yes

Invested

$376.38

Value

$352.64

PnL

-$25

Record

51%

4164-4031 (8195)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$232.48

Value

$175.95

PnL

+$250.06

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Both legs:

Yes$134.8469.5¢-$29.88

No$13.59.2¢+$279.95

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$41.26

Value

$120.61

PnL

+$79.35

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$144.46

Value

$98.02

PnL

-$30.16

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Invested

$49.68

Value

$77.33

PnL

+$42.25

Record

29%

494-1196 (1690)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$46.25

Value

$72.83

PnL

+$73.81

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$34.2

Value

$63.53

PnL

+$29.32

Record

56%

23834-18418 (42252)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$64.32

Value

$53.62

PnL

-$10.71

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

$15.49

Value

$26.38

PnL

+$10.9

Record

38%

327-535 (862)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.01

Value

$23.64

PnL

+$2.63

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$15.75

Value

$23.1

PnL

+$11.09

Record

27%

659-1763 (2422)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.15

Value

$21.01

PnL

-$7.14

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$15.09

PnL

+$5.23

Record

48%

11465-12267 (23732)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.62

Value

$12.88

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.31

Value

$12.33

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.89

Value

$10.51

PnL

+$1.62

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$12.86

Value

$10.01

PnL

-$2.85

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$5.82

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$0.7

Record

26%

7407-21213 (28620)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.87

Value

$9.02

PnL

-$2.85

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$5.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

42%

2420-3373 (5793)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$2.92

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.53

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 20 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.