Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Drake Maye win the 2026 NFL MVP?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 4.5¢ · $304 held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$303.98

Combined PnL

$256.61

Smart Money Entry

2.6¢ → 4.5¢

+76% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$303.98

Total Shares6,740

Combined PnL+$256.61

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

490h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$111.48	$77.61	+$12.64	45% 2314-2839 (5153)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$17.63	$48.88	+$31.25	21% 2284-8684 (10968)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$9.06	$47.2	+$38.15	41% 1295-1880 (3175)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$20.55	$35.04	+$14.48	35% 16923-31292 (48215)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$21.44	$33.42	+$11.98	43% 467-620 (1087)
AN ancianoCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$3.3K	$25.37	+$157.53	52% 1154-1067 (2221)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$18.87	$22.8	+$3.93	50% 1694-1679 (3373)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$27	$13.65	-$13.35	56% 3077-2423 (5500)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$111.48

Value

$77.61

PnL

+$12.64

Record

45%

2314-2839 (5153)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.63

Value

$48.88

PnL

+$31.25

Record

21%

2284-8684 (10968)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.06

Value

$47.2

PnL

+$38.15

Record

41%

1295-1880 (3175)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.55

Value

$35.04

PnL

+$14.48

Record

35%

16923-31292 (48215)

0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.44

Value

$33.42

PnL

+$11.98

Record

43%

467-620 (1087)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,302.44

Value

$25.37

PnL

+$157.53

Record

52%

1154-1067 (2221)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.87

Value

$22.8

PnL

+$3.93

Record

50%

1694-1679 (3373)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27

Value

$13.65

PnL

-$13.35

Record

56%

3077-2423 (5500)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Late

490h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.