Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$127.5

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 88¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,541

Combined PnL+$34.96

No7 traders

Total Value$164.79

Total Shares1,348

Combined PnL+$92.54

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

296h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Yesavg 82.7¢	$1.7K	$1.0K	+$64.22	51% 290-283 (573)
Istaroth	Yesavg 84.5¢	$6.3K	$700.04	-$10.66	14% 513-3102 (3615)
AU auros2	Yesavg 85.6¢	$551.18	$560.13	-$20.08	— 4-0 (4)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 17¢	$210.7	$83.81	+$140.24	35% 18852-34867 (53719)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Noavg 29.9¢	$80.39	$40.17	-$33.72	56% 18392-14302 (32694)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 14.7¢	$31.83	$23.42	-$4.87	41% 6394-9370 (15764)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 84.8¢	$53.56	$17.25	-$0.75	77% 12520-3844 (16364)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$14.23	$16.46	+$2.23	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 13.9¢	$11.1	$9.6	-$1.5	61% 15009-9460 (24469)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$7.8	$3.6	-$4.2	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 17.7¢	$9.58	$2.4	-$3.28	18% 1302-6138 (7440)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$4.8	$1.8	-$0.13	27% 549-1481 (2030)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Yes

Invested

$1,745.74

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$64.22

Record

51%

290-283 (573)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$6,302.96

Value

$700.04

PnL

-$10.66

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

auros2

Yes

Invested

$551.18

Value

$560.13

PnL

-$20.08

Record

—

4-0 (4)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$210.7

Value

$83.81

PnL

+$140.24

Record

35%

18852-34867 (53719)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Invested

$80.39

Value

$40.17

PnL

-$33.72

Record

56%

18392-14302 (32694)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$31.83

Value

$23.42

PnL

-$4.87

Record

41%

6394-9370 (15764)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.56

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

77%

12520-3844 (16364)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.23

Value

$16.46

PnL

+$2.23

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$11.1

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$1.5

Record

61%

15009-9460 (24469)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$4.2

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$9.58

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$3.28

Record

18%

1302-6138 (7440)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.13

Record

27%

549-1481 (2030)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

296h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.