Will Drake be featured on GTA VI: The Album?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 67¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 26

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Thu, Nov 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$265.8

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 67¢

-13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$990.49

Total Shares1,478

Combined PnL-$287.38

Yes2 traders

Total Value$23.63

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$21.59

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 80.9¢	$816.09	$541.62	-$114.43	50% 1695-1681 (3376)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$756.47	$527.64	+$62.62	35% 17563-32834 (50397)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.2¢	$323.11	$317.61	-$58.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.3¢	$160.99	$210.04	+$121.05
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 67.5¢	$230.77	$229.14	-$92.26	50% 1249-1274 (2523)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	No	$2.37	$110.95	-$65.89	56% 171-134 (305)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$54.76	$54.94	+$0.18	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
HE HerrieDavis<$100	Noavg 75¢	$39.27	$35.08	-$18.06	36% 2155-3860 (6015)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.1¢	$59.6	$20.1	+$22.63	18% 4199-19790 (23989)
GA Gaditima<$100	Noavg 75¢	$15.68	$18.76	+$3.08	48% 6897-7543 (14440)
macrosteaksCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$2.85	$3.53	-$1.04	55% 3435-2832 (6267)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$816.09

Value

$541.62

PnL

-$114.43

Record

50%

1695-1681 (3376)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$756.47

Value

$527.64

PnL

+$62.62

Record

35%

17563-32834 (50397)

Both legs:

No$323.1168.2¢-$58.43

Yes$160.9925.3¢+$121.05

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$230.77

Value

$229.14

PnL

-$92.26

Record

50%

1249-1274 (2523)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$2.37

Value

$110.95

PnL

-$65.89

Record

56%

171-134 (305)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Invested

$54.76

Value

$54.94

PnL

+$0.18

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

HerrieDavis<$100

Invested

$39.27

Value

$35.08

PnL

-$18.06

Record

36%

2155-3860 (6015)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.6

Value

$20.1

PnL

+$22.63

Record

18%

4199-19790 (23989)

Gaditima<$100

Invested

$15.68

Value

$18.76

PnL

+$3.08

Record

48%

6897-7543 (14440)

macrosteaksCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$3.53

PnL

-$1.04

Record

55%

3435-2832 (6267)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.