Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Doug Burgum be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.9¢ · $18 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$17.71

Combined PnL

$4.07

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$17.71

Total Shares621

Combined PnL+$4.07

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI linethCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.65	$5.94	+$4.27	44% 285-364 (649)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.27	$5.75	-$2.32	27% 598-1657 (2255)
BU buoysCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.23	$5.24	+$1.86	46% 748-893 (1641)
NE NewshoundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.32	$0.72	+$0.28	55% 791-656 (1447)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.08	$0.05	-$0.03	40% 6547-9828 (16375)

linethCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$4.27

Record

44%

285-364 (649)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$2.32

Record

27%

598-1657 (2255)

buoysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.23

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$1.86

Record

46%

748-893 (1641)

NewshoundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.28

Record

55%

791-656 (1447)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.03

Record

40%

6547-9828 (16375)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.0%

2.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2369.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

2469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.