Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$3.6K
-$541.78
85.7¢ → 92.5¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4785h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alwaysOn | Noavg 89.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$61.68 | 77% 631-185 (816) |
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 79.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$189.29 | 72% 3490-1330 (4820) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $339.31 | $83.4 | -$184.94 | 36% 15393-27456 (42849) |
 GollumGekkoCTR | Yesavg 65.5¢ | $685.27 | $78.43 | -$606.84 | 69% 2064-938 (3002) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $1.58 | $0.65 | -$0.97 | 49% 734-767 (1501) |
Invested
$2,031.07
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$61.68
Record
77%
631-185 (816)
Parz1vaIInvested
$1,137.02
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$189.29
Record
72%
3490-1330 (4820)
Invested
$339.31
Value
$83.4
PnL
-$184.94
Record
36%
15393-27456 (42849)
GollumGekkoCTRInvested
$685.27
Value
$78.43
PnL
-$606.84
Record
69%
2064-938 (3002)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$1.58
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$0.97
Record
49%
734-767 (1501)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.