Will Donald Trump be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 60¢ · $330 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$330.25
$5.39
81.1¢ → 59.5¢
-27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 80.4¢ | $117.22 | $126.66 | +$9.44 | 49% 1837-1905 (3742) |
 2B9SARB<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $58.09 | $56.22 | -$1.87 | 18% 4236-19937 (24173) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 85¢ | $40.8 | $36 | -$4.8 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $17.29 | $20.22 | +$2.93 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 13.6¢ | $190.58 | $43.24 | +$10.19 | 35% 17800-33165 (50965) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $59.52 | $41.55 | -$7.98 | 55% 181-147 (328) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $25.94 | $22.5 | -$3.44 | 62% 14630-9158 (23788) |
 ImJustKenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.5¢ | $22.49 | $21.75 | -$0.74 | 53% 3072-2742 (5814) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 83.3¢ | $35.71 | $10.81 | -$1.19 | 49% 8636-9158 (17794) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 83.9¢ | $33.58 | $7.5 | -$0.89 | 41% 6791-9646 (16437) |
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$117.22
Value
$126.66
PnL
+$9.44
Record
49%
1837-1905 (3742)
2B9SARB<$100Invested
$58.09
Value
$56.22
PnL
-$1.87
Record
18%
4236-19937 (24173)
Both legs:
Invested
$190.58
Value
$43.24
PnL
+$10.19
Record
35%
17800-33165 (50965)
Invested
$59.52
Value
$41.55
PnL
-$7.98
Record
55%
181-147 (328)
Invested
$25.94
Value
$22.5
PnL
-$3.44
Record
62%
14630-9158 (23788)
ImJustKenCTR<$100Invested
$22.49
Value
$21.75
PnL
-$0.74
Record
53%
3072-2742 (5814)
Invested
$35.71
Value
$10.81
PnL
-$1.19
Record
49%
8636-9158 (17794)
Invested
$33.58
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$0.89
Record
41%
6791-9646 (16437)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.