Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 37¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
-$11.1
41.1¢ → 37.3¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PaddyAlphaCTR | Noavg 39.5¢ | $1.0K | $736.94 | +$3.88 | 59% 978-672 (1650) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 45.9¢ | $381.52 | $356.43 | -$15.49 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Noavg 51.5¢ | $30.8 | $29.02 | -$1.78 | — |
 jesterthegoose<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $3 | $12.15 | +$9.15 | 81% 646-148 (794) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Noavg 62.1¢ | $18.63 | $11.78 | -$6.85 | 36% 2032-3630 (5662) |
PaddyAlphaCTRInvested
$1,007.81
Value
$736.94
PnL
+$3.88
Record
59%
978-672 (1650)
Invested
$381.52
Value
$356.43
PnL
-$15.49
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Invested
$30.8
Value
$29.02
PnL
-$1.78
Record
—
jesterthegoose<$100Invested
$3
Value
$12.15
PnL
+$9.15
Record
81%
646-148 (794)
Invested
$18.63
Value
$11.78
PnL
-$6.85
Record
36%
2032-3630 (5662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.