Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Doggo win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 29

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.37

Combined PnL

-$10.13

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$0.37

Total Shares748

Combined PnL-$10.13

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$3.99	$0.14	-$3.85	27% 3493-9312 (12805)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$2.06	$0.07	-$1.99	46% 6642-7775 (14417)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.14	$0.04	-$1.07	21% 608-2274 (2882)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.15	$0.03	-$0.97	25% 683-2050 (2733)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.59	$0.03	-$0.94	22% 1864-6619 (8483)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.37	$0.03	-$0.35	26% 597-1690 (2287)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.43	$0.02	-$0.55	32% 21778-45614 (67392)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.2	$0.01	-$0.19	55% 25558-21177 (46735)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.01	-$0.18	50% 66106-66575 (132681)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.04	$0.01	-$0.04	22% 3414-11955 (15369)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.99

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$3.85

Record

27%

3493-9312 (12805)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.06

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.99

Record

46%

6642-7775 (14417)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.07

Record

21%

608-2274 (2882)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.97

Record

25%

683-2050 (2733)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.94

Record

22%

1864-6619 (8483)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.35

Record

26%

597-1690 (2287)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.55

Record

32%

21778-45614 (67392)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.19

Record

55%

25558-21177 (46735)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

66106-66575 (132681)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

22%

3414-11955 (15369)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.