Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $15K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$14.8K
$2.3K
77.7¢ → 92.3¢
+19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7 | Noavg 77.7¢ | $12.2K | $14.4K | +$2.3K | 46% 466-545 (1011) |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 80¢ | $240.52 | $277.43 | +$36.46 | 53% 238-211 (449) |
AL Albert 1953<$100 | Noavg 62.4¢ | $43.25 | $63.95 | +$20.7 | 50% 1096-1102 (2198) |
 DEGENKHANCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $52.76 | $24.01 | -$28.28 | 66% 1108-565 (1673) |
TE technician2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 62.4¢ | $1.86 | $0.23 | -$1.63 | 53% 454-403 (857) |
Invested
$12,161.31
Value
$14.4K
PnL
+$2.3K
Record
46%
466-545 (1011)
Invested
$240.52
Value
$277.43
PnL
+$36.46
Record
53%
238-211 (449)
Invested
$43.25
Value
$63.95
PnL
+$20.7
Record
50%
1096-1102 (2198)
DEGENKHANCTR<$100Invested
$52.76
Value
$24.01
PnL
-$28.28
Record
66%
1108-565 (1673)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$0.23
PnL
-$1.63
Record
53%
454-403 (857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.