Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 80¢ · $10K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$9.8K
$828.13
55.4¢ → 80.2¢
+45% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Parz1vaI | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $3.0K | $3.9K | +$831.59 | 72% 3492-1332 (4824) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 54.9¢ | $2.9K | $3.2K | +$331.41 | 19% 319-1318 (1637) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.9¢ | $1.6K | $2.0K | +$417.15 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$85.74 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 44.4¢ | $2.6K | $2.4K | +$286.81 | 36% 15617-27548 (43165) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$292.44 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$5.64 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yesavg 65.9¢ | $1.1K | $328.83 | +$48.33 | 53% 6562-5775 (12337) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 60.6¢ | $2.1K | $47.72 | -$51.79 | 56% 15312-11850 (27162) |
Parz1vaIInvested
$3,049.2
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$831.59
Record
72%
3492-1332 (4824)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$2,894.18
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$331.41
Record
19%
319-1318 (1637)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,603.23
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$286.81
Record
36%
15617-27548 (43165)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,102.5
Value
$328.83
PnL
+$48.33
Record
53%
6562-5775 (12337)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$2,120.4
Value
$47.72
PnL
-$51.79
Record
56%
15312-11850 (27162)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.