Will Director L win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 50¢ · $290 held · ends Mar 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$290.44
$276.27
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $5.08 | $104.24 | +$99.16 | 40% 1470-2192 (3662) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $2.86 | $58.7 | +$55.84 | 37% 3428-5859 (9287) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $2.28 | $46.84 | +$44.55 | 38% 58-96 (154) |
 balthazar<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.19 | $24.39 | +$23.2 | 47% 4795-5410 (10205) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.86 | $17.54 | +$16.68 | 7% 2-28 (30) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.79 | $16.21 | +$15.42 | 40% 3217-4824 (8041) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.73 | $15 | +$14.27 | 39% 1060-1645 (2705) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.37 | $7.53 | +$7.16 | 30% 2929-6854 (9783) |
Invested
$5.08
Value
$104.24
PnL
+$99.16
Record
40%
1470-2192 (3662)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$2.86
Value
$58.7
PnL
+$55.84
Record
37%
3428-5859 (9287)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
$46.84
PnL
+$44.55
Record
38%
58-96 (154)
balthazar<$100Invested
$1.19
Value
$24.39
PnL
+$23.2
Record
47%
4795-5410 (10205)
Invested
$0.86
Value
$17.54
PnL
+$16.68
Record
7%
2-28 (30)
Invested
$0.79
Value
$16.21
PnL
+$15.42
Record
40%
3217-4824 (8041)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$15
PnL
+$14.27
Record
39%
1060-1645 (2705)
Invested
$0.37
Value
$7.53
PnL
+$7.16
Record
30%
2929-6854 (9783)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.