Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will De'Von Achane win the 2026 NFL MVP?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$5.02

Combined PnL

-$88.28

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$5.02

Total Shares3,348

Combined PnL-$88.28

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

134h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$19.43	$1.24	-$18.19	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$31.06	$1.12	-$29.14	28% 797-2091 (2888)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$13.32	$0.9	-$12.42	39% 259-407 (666)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$12.43	$0.81	-$11.62	40% 1619-2432 (4051)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$6.95	$0.32	-$6.63	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$3.79	$0.3	-$4.9	55% 3191-2650 (5841)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$2.9	$0.14	-$2.76	50% 2630-2578 (5208)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$1.56	$0.09	-$1.47	18% 109-507 (616)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.47	$0.06	-$0.41	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.52	$0.03	-$0.49	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.18	$0.01	-$0.17	55% 39043-31788 (70831)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$0	-$0.07	45% 7018-8417 (15435)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.43

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$18.19

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.06

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$29.14

Record

28%

797-2091 (2888)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.32

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$12.42

Record

39%

259-407 (666)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.43

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$11.62

Record

40%

1619-2432 (4051)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.95

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$6.63

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.79

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$4.9

Record

55%

3191-2650 (5841)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$2.76

Record

50%

2630-2578 (5208)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.47

Record

18%

109-507 (616)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.41

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.17

Record

55%

39043-31788 (70831)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

PnL

-$0.07

Record

45%

7018-8417 (15435)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

134h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.