Will Denis Villeneuve be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 67¢ · $391 held · ends Mar 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$390.51
$14.44
Research grade
NeutralYes at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StarMaster | Yesavg 62.8¢ | $314 | $335 | +$21 | — |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $39.42 | $35.07 | -$4.36 | 51% 40-38 (78) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $8.16 | $7.46 | -$0.7 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $7.4 | $6.4 | -$1 | 10% 3-28 (31) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $4.76 | $4.48 | -$0.28 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.8¢ | $2.13 | $1.9 | -$0.23 | 55% 581-483 (1064) |
StarMasterInvested
$314
Value
$335
PnL
+$21
Record
—
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$39.42
Value
$35.07
PnL
-$4.36
Record
51%
40-38 (78)
Invested
$8.16
Value
$7.46
PnL
-$0.7
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$6.4
PnL
-$1
Record
10%
3-28 (31)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.48
PnL
-$0.28
Record
39%
1053-1631 (2684)
Invested
$2.13
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.23
Record
55%
581-483 (1064)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.