Will Dems win fewer than 8 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 66¢ · $645 held · ends Oct 27

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$645.26

Combined PnL

$284.26

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$334.25

Total Shares455

Combined PnL+$185.32

Yes2 traders

Total Value$139.38

Total Shares309

Combined PnL+$98.94

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nadmi	Noavg 32.7¢	$148.93	$334.25	+$185.32	47% 2028-2244 (4272)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$317.35	$171.63	+$87.03	36% 14598-26253 (40851)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.7¢	$58.54	$92.62	+$111.47
└ No leg	Noavg 64.6¢	$69.45	$79.01	-$24.44
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$24	$88	+$64	73% 2677-968 (3645)
BiDiFakePollsCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$16.44	$51.38	+$34.94	58% 171-124 (295)

Nadmi

Invested

$148.93

Value

$334.25

PnL

+$185.32

Record

47%

2028-2244 (4272)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$317.35

Value

$171.63

PnL

+$87.03

Record

36%

14598-26253 (40851)

Both legs:

Yes$58.5416.7¢+$111.47

No$69.4564.6¢-$24.44

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$88

PnL

+$64

Record

73%

2677-968 (3645)

BiDiFakePollsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.44

Value

$51.38

PnL

+$34.94

Record

58%

171-124 (295)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.