Will Dems win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 77¢ · $484 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$484.29
$73.97
66.1¢ → 76.5¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 67.7¢ | $609.82 | $330.94 | +$57.74 | 36% 14598-26253 (40851) |
 BiDiFakePolls<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $66.44 | $77.14 | +$10.7 | 58% 171-124 (295) |
ME melonmanm<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $31.5 | $34.25 | +$2.75 | 65% 483-260 (743) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $32.84 | $32.51 | -$0.32 | 31% 273-604 (877) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $6.34 | $9.45 | +$3.11 | 60% 3221-2159 (5380) |
Invested
$609.82
Value
$330.94
PnL
+$57.74
Record
36%
14598-26253 (40851)
BiDiFakePolls<$100Invested
$66.44
Value
$77.14
PnL
+$10.7
Record
58%
171-124 (295)
Invested
$31.5
Value
$34.25
PnL
+$2.75
Record
65%
483-260 (743)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$32.84
Value
$32.51
PnL
-$0.32
Record
31%
273-604 (877)
Invested
$6.34
Value
$9.45
PnL
+$3.11
Record
60%
3221-2159 (5380)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.