Will Democrats win the Texas and Michigan Senate seats, and Republicans win Maine?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 89¢ · $142 held · ends Nov 3

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$142.48

Combined PnL

$31.92

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$95.45

Total Shares108

Combined PnL+$0.65

Yes3 traders

Total Value$47.03

Total Shares402

Combined PnL+$31.28

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$55.43	$55.72	+$0.29	92% 8456-738 (9194)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$14.05	$45.06	+$31.2	47% 2041-2301 (4342)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$26.23	$26.49	+$0.26	43% 5953-7860 (13813)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$11.24	$11.3	+$0.06	59% 218-153 (371)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$1.9	$1.94	+$0.03	39% 187-287 (474)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$1.56	$1.49	-$0.07	25% 180-534 (714)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.34	$0.48	+$0.15	40% 22-33 (55)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$55.43

Value

$55.72

PnL

+$0.29

Record

92%

8456-738 (9194)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.05

Value

$45.06

PnL

+$31.2

Record

47%

2041-2301 (4342)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$26.23

Value

$26.49

PnL

+$0.26

Record

43%

5953-7860 (13813)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$11.24

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$0.06

Record

59%

218-153 (371)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

187-287 (474)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$0.07

Record

25%

180-534 (714)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$0.15

Record

40%

22-33 (55)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.3%

88.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.