Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Democrats win the Alaska Governor election and Republicans win the Alaska Senate election?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 2.6¢ · $286 held · ended Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$285.58

Combined PnL

-$10.26

Smart Money Entry

8.9¢ → 2.6¢

-70% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$193.46

Total Shares199

Combined PnL+$228.84

Yes7 traders

Total Value$92.11

Total Shares3,437

Combined PnL-$239.09

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$90.74	$94.33	+$3.59	46% 9374-11127 (20501)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 77.6¢	$110.14	$74	+$215.07	51% 2575-2507 (5082)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 7.7¢	$177	$57.61	-$102.41	45% 2962-3655 (6617)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 81¢	$19.95	$19.45	+$9.5	17% 4487-21970 (26457)
LA lava-lavaCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$56.5	$11.95	-$44.77	43% 592-781 (1373)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yes	$7.15	$7.15	-$44.98	38% 1188-1960 (3148)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$18.88	$6.34	-$12.54	47% 112-127 (239)
musicenthusiastCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.4¢	$24.53	$6.08	-$18.45	59% 455-311 (766)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$5.01	$5.68	+$0.67	58% 21138-15369 (36507)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$156.1	$1.62	+$9.71	40% 6508-9755 (16263)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 17.1¢	$177.48	$1.36	-$25.65	48% 7369-8075 (15444)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$90.74

Value

$94.33

PnL

+$3.59

Record

46%

9374-11127 (20501)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$110.14

Value

$74

PnL

+$215.07

Record

51%

2575-2507 (5082)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$177

Value

$57.61

PnL

-$102.41

Record

45%

2962-3655 (6617)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$19.95

Value

$19.45

PnL

+$9.5

Record

17%

4487-21970 (26457)

lava-lavaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.5

Value

$11.95

PnL

-$44.77

Record

43%

592-781 (1373)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.15

Value

$7.15

PnL

-$44.98

Record

38%

1188-1960 (3148)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.88

Value

$6.34

PnL

-$12.54

Record

47%

112-127 (239)

musicenthusiastCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.53

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$18.45

Record

59%

455-311 (766)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$5.68

PnL

+$0.67

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$156.1

Value

$1.62

PnL

+$9.71

Record

40%

6508-9755 (16263)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$177.48

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$25.65

Record

48%

7369-8075 (15444)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.8%

2.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2538.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

2638.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.