Will Democrats win older women in the midterms?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $680 held · ends Nov 7

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$679.75

Combined PnL

$86.43

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 99.7¢

+37% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$678.32

Total Shares680

Combined PnL+$94.53

No3 traders

Total Value$1.43

Total Shares477

Combined PnL-$8.1

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yes	$498.5	$498.5	+$46.05	72% 190-73 (263)
BU buoys	Yesavg 72.4¢	$126.94	$174.83	+$47.89	45% 735-881 (1616)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.99	+$0.59	77% 12530-3845 (16375)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$8	$1.2	-$6.8	56% 16134-12882 (29016)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Noavg 6.1¢	$65.56	$0.17	-$3.23	51% 290-283 (573)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 1.2¢	$29.26	$0.06	+$1.93	18% 4435-20817 (25252)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$498.5

Value

$498.5

PnL

+$46.05

Record

72%

190-73 (263)

buoys

Yes

Invested

$126.94

Value

$174.83

PnL

+$47.89

Record

45%

735-881 (1616)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.59

Record

77%

12530-3845 (16375)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$6.8

Record

56%

16134-12882 (29016)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Invested

$65.56

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$3.23

Record

51%

290-283 (573)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$29.26

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$1.93

Record

18%

4435-20817 (25252)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.