Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms?

2 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (12%) · Yes at 99¢ · $351 held · ends Nov 7

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 12%

Total Value

$350.56

Combined PnL

-$211.29

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 98.6¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 17 top traders (12%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$313.38

Total Shares318

Combined PnL+$7.01

No15 traders

Total Value$37.17

Total Shares2,065

Combined PnL-$218.3

Yes — 12%No — 88%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

728h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

12% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Yesavg 96.3¢	$296.66	$273.98	+$7.03	55% 187-153 (340)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 98.6¢	$39.42	$39.4	-$0.02	53% 8051-7154 (15205)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 10.7¢	$45	$7.57	-$37.42	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 19¢	$156.81	$6.84	-$24.47	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 15.8¢	$63.05	$6.48	-$37.77	51% 3540-3430 (6970)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 11.8¢	$30.6	$4.68	-$25.92	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 13.3¢	$32.19	$3.63	-$23.54	26% 353-995 (1348)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 26.4¢	$35.76	$2.43	-$33.09	29% 2333-5711 (8044)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$17.6	$2.04	-$13.77	42% 3687-5095 (8782)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 16.8¢	$10.1	$1.08	-$9.02	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$3.96	$0.65	-$3.31	17% 291-1415 (1706)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$18.3	$0.49	-$7.81	17% 1105-5456 (6561)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$2.7	$0.49	-$2.17	18% 249-1163 (1412)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$0.22	$0.22	+$0	40% 2104-3149 (5253)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$0.22	$0.22	+$0	39% 992-1523 (2515)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$0.22	$0.22	+$0	47% 2081-2362 (4443)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$0.15	$0.15	+$0	47% 1630-1807 (3437)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Yes

Invested

$296.66

Value

$273.98

PnL

+$7.03

Record

55%

187-153 (340)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.42

Value

$39.4

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

8051-7154 (15205)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$7.57

PnL

-$37.42

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$156.81

Value

$6.84

PnL

-$24.47

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$63.05

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$37.77

Record

51%

3540-3430 (6970)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$30.6

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$25.92

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$32.19

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$23.54

Record

26%

353-995 (1348)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$35.76

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$33.09

Record

29%

2333-5711 (8044)

alex20011CTR<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$13.77

Record

42%

3687-5095 (8782)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$10.1

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$9.02

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$3.31

Record

17%

291-1415 (1706)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$18.3

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$7.81

Record

17%

1105-5456 (6561)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$2.17

Record

18%

249-1163 (1412)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

992-1523 (2515)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2081-2362 (4443)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1630-1807 (3437)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 17 top traders (12%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

728h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

12% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.