Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms?

2 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 99¢ · $335 held · ends Nov 7

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 14%

Total Value

$335.36

Combined PnL

-$121.06

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 98.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 14 top traders (14%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$314.93

Total Shares318

Combined PnL+$8.58

No12 traders

Total Value$20.43

Total Shares1,409

Combined PnL-$129.64

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

732h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Yesavg 96.3¢	$296.66	$275.51	+$8.56	52% 234-213 (447)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 98.5¢	$40	$39.42	+$0.02	53% 8154-7250 (15404)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 10.7¢	$45	$6.1	-$38.9	78% 12307-3545 (15852)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 19¢	$156.81	$5.51	-$25.8	35% 18009-33702 (51711)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 11.8¢	$30.6	$3.77	-$26.83	53% 29106-25981 (55087)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 13.3¢	$17.6	$2.32	-$15.28	27% 431-1147 (1578)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$3.96	$0.52	-$3.44	18% 318-1495 (1813)
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$3.38	$0.41	-$2.97	49% 1706-1810 (3516)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$18.3	$0.39	-$7.91	17% 1183-5702 (6885)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$2.7	$0.39	-$2.31	19% 288-1194 (1482)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 26.4¢	$2.86	$0.38	-$2.48	29% 2380-5765 (8145)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 16.8¢	$10.1	$0.29	-$3.64	60% 11747-7966 (19713)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$0.22	$0.18	-$0.04	40% 2149-3186 (5335)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$0.22	$0.17	-$0.04	47% 2122-2412 (4534)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Yes

Invested

$296.66

Value

$275.51

PnL

+$8.56

Record

52%

234-213 (447)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$39.42

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

8154-7250 (15404)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$38.9

Record

78%

12307-3545 (15852)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$156.81

Value

$5.51

PnL

-$25.8

Record

35%

18009-33702 (51711)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$30.6

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$26.83

Record

53%

29106-25981 (55087)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$15.28

Record

27%

431-1147 (1578)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$3.44

Record

18%

318-1495 (1813)

PiEDawgCTR<$100

Invested

$3.38

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$2.97

Record

49%

1706-1810 (3516)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$18.3

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$7.91

Record

17%

1183-5702 (6885)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$2.31

Record

19%

288-1194 (1482)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$2.86

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$2.48

Record

29%

2380-5765 (8145)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$10.1

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$3.64

Record

60%

11747-7966 (19713)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.04

Record

40%

2149-3186 (5335)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

2122-2412 (4534)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 14 top traders (14%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

732h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.