Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $950 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$950.11

Combined PnL

$90.78

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 99.8¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$942.56

Total Shares944

Combined PnL+$117.64

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.55

Total Shares1,259

Combined PnL-$26.86

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

208h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RememberAmalek	Noavg 98.2¢	$724.11	$659.63	+$105.35	56% 990-786 (1776)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 98.1¢	$196.2	$199.8	+$2.4	43% 39-52 (91)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$26.01	$26	-$0	30% 2222-5090 (7312)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$26.56	$19.96	+$9.89	73% 13591-5101 (18692)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$17.98	$17.98	-$0	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.2	$14.2	-$0	38% 997-1606 (2603)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$12.62	$6.46	-$6.16	27% 6766-18641 (25407)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.99	-$0	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$51.02	$0.61	-$20.42	50% 1748-1776 (3524)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.76	$0.48	-$0.28	43% 2149-2803 (4952)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$724.11

Value

$659.63

PnL

+$105.35

Record

56%

990-786 (1776)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$196.2

Value

$199.8

PnL

+$2.4

Record

43%

39-52 (91)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$26.01

Value

$26

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

2222-5090 (7312)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$26.56

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$9.89

Record

73%

13591-5101 (18692)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$17.98

Value

$17.98

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

997-1606 (2603)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.62

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$6.16

Record

27%

6766-18641 (25407)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.02

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$20.42

Record

50%

1748-1776 (3524)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$0.28

Record

43%

2149-2803 (4952)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

208h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.