Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 93¢ · $643 held · ended Nov 4

Yes93¢No7¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$643.4

Combined PnL

-$248.41

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 93¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$588.87

Total Shares647

Combined PnL+$81.04

No3 traders

Total Value$54.53

Total Shares517

Combined PnL-$329.44

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 88.6¢	$298.72	$192.64	-$36.88	45% 2962-3655 (6617)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 95.9¢	$191.8	$184.7	-$3.4	56% 16350-13102 (29452)
AU auros2<$100	Yes	$76.66	$76.66	+$58.91	— 4-0 (4)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 16.2¢	$11.08	$63.03	+$1.55	45% 1780-2176 (3956)
RA RadioCCOD<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$5.22	$43.66	+$38.45	32% 81-169 (250)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 68.2¢	$574.57	$32.58	-$309.87	34% 19138-36780 (55918)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$43.97	$20.8	-$13.32	40% 6508-9755 (16263)
thanksforplayin<$100	Yesavg 21.7¢	$3.22	$15.52	+$12.3	56% 689-551 (1240)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 17.6¢	$2.11	$11.07	+$8.97	26% 7287-21050 (28337)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$0.43	$1.58	+$1.15	73% 13762-5200 (18962)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 74¢	$7.4	$1.15	-$6.25	46% 9374-11127 (20501)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$298.72

Value

$192.64

PnL

-$36.88

Record

45%

2962-3655 (6617)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$191.8

Value

$184.7

PnL

-$3.4

Record

56%

16350-13102 (29452)

auros2<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.66

Value

$76.66

PnL

+$58.91

Record

—

4-0 (4)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.08

Value

$63.03

PnL

+$1.55

Record

45%

1780-2176 (3956)

RadioCCOD<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.22

Value

$43.66

PnL

+$38.45

Record

32%

81-169 (250)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$574.57

Value

$32.58

PnL

-$309.87

Record

34%

19138-36780 (55918)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$43.97

Value

$20.8

PnL

-$13.32

Record

40%

6508-9755 (16263)

thanksforplayin<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.22

Value

$15.52

PnL

+$12.3

Record

56%

689-551 (1240)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.11

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$8.97

Record

26%

7287-21050 (28337)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$1.15

Record

73%

13762-5200 (18962)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$6.25

Record

46%

9374-11127 (20501)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.