Will Democrats win 9 or more of the US House seats bordering Mexico in the 2026 midterm elections?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
1 arb excluded
$3.3K
$317.76
42.9¢ → 78.5¢
+83% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 68.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$50.11 | 20% 312-1273 (1585) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 68.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$138.75 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 33.8¢ | $731.67 | $541.47 | -$188.86 | |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 41.8¢ | $568.49 | $923.96 | +$355.47 | 61% 203-131 (334) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 35.1¢ | $147.72 | $150.78 | +$3.06 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.7¢ | $83.92 | $38.99 | -$37.94 | 18% 3802-17227 (21029) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $36.14 | $34.11 | -$2.03 | 42% 148-206 (354) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $10.8 | $10 | -$0.8 | 48% 3447-3744 (7191) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$2,254.82
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$50.11
Record
20%
312-1273 (1585)
Both legs:
Invested
$568.49
Value
$923.96
PnL
+$355.47
Record
61%
203-131 (334)
Invested
$147.72
Value
$150.78
PnL
+$3.06
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$83.92
Value
$38.99
PnL
-$37.94
Record
18%
3802-17227 (21029)
Invested
$36.14
Value
$34.11
PnL
-$2.03
Record
42%
148-206 (354)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.8
Record
48%
3447-3744 (7191)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.