Will Democrats win 6 or more House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (31%) · Yes at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 4

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 31%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

33.8¢ → 98.2¢

+191% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,974

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No11 traders

Total Value$197.69

Total Shares881

Combined PnL-$221.36

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 42.9¢	$5.22	$1.2K	+$1.2K	45% 2415-2986 (5401)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 33¢	$355.71	$1.0K	+$88.7	27% 6761-18637 (25398)
RememberAmalek	Yesavg 15.4¢	$64.43	$500.71	+$122.53	56% 987-786 (1773)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 62.3¢	$925.53	$185.13	-$89.04	35% 17632-33001 (50633)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 16.5¢	$21.62	$127.8	+$27.91	50% 1703-1693 (3396)
thanksforplayin<$100	Yesavg 80.6¢	$33.54	$30.39	+$4.53	55% 400-331 (731)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 74.9¢	$49.84	$6.32	-$43.52	50% 1258-1276 (2534)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 43.2¢	$41.05	$2.38	-$38.67	41% 6764-9623 (16387)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 45.3¢	$21.28	$1.17	-$20.11	17% 281-1392 (1673)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 50.1¢	$68.9	$0.75	-$4.73	29% 2320-5696 (8016)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 33.2¢	$9.3	$0.7	-$8.6	17% 1079-5368 (6447)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 9.3¢	$2.42	$0.65	-$1.77	30% 2167-5020 (7187)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 35.5¢	$14.2	$0.21	-$13.2	25% 327-975 (1302)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 2.6¢	$0.24	$0.16	-$0.07	40% 986-1509 (2495)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 35.1¢	$1.76	$0.13	-$1.63	79% 12035-3234 (15269)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 2.5¢	$0.13	$0.09	-$0.03	47% 1613-1794 (3407)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$5.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

45%

2415-2986 (5401)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$355.71

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$88.7

Record

27%

6761-18637 (25398)

RememberAmalek

Yes

Invested

$64.43

Value

$500.71

PnL

+$122.53

Record

56%

987-786 (1773)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$925.53

Value

$185.13

PnL

-$89.04

Record

35%

17632-33001 (50633)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$21.62

Value

$127.8

PnL

+$27.91

Record

50%

1703-1693 (3396)

thanksforplayin<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.54

Value

$30.39

PnL

+$4.53

Record

55%

400-331 (731)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$49.84

Value

$6.32

PnL

-$43.52

Record

50%

1258-1276 (2534)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$41.05

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$38.67

Record

41%

6764-9623 (16387)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$21.28

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$20.11

Record

17%

281-1392 (1673)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$68.9

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$4.73

Record

29%

2320-5696 (8016)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$8.6

Record

17%

1079-5368 (6447)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$2.42

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$1.77

Record

30%

2167-5020 (7187)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$13.2

Record

25%

327-975 (1302)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.07

Record

40%

986-1509 (2495)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$1.76

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.63

Record

79%

12035-3234 (15269)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

1613-1794 (3407)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 16 top traders (31%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.