Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Democrats win 14 or more House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 2.6¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$209.38

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 2.6¢

-97% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$697.08

Total Shares1,143

Combined PnL+$404.89

No8 traders

Total Value$574.82

Total Shares1,400

Combined PnL-$195.51

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RadioCCOD	Yesavg 15¢	$0.08	$551.29	+$387.91	— 4-7 (11)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Noavg 87.8¢	$313.16	$261.03	-$52.13	50% 1261-1281 (2542)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 80.5¢	$491.23	$133.43	-$91.63	35% 17899-33380 (51279)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 85¢	$146.64	$129.98	-$16.66	53% 8083-7183 (15266)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$17.18	$71.98	+$6.42	18% 4246-19975 (24221)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$16.69	$61.61	+$3.51	27% 6785-18664 (25449)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$47.2	$23.07	-$24.13	45% 2583-3110 (5693)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 41.4¢	$13.78	$12.97	-$0.81	53% 28943-25862 (54805)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100	Yesavg 25.8¢	$5.15	$12.2	+$7.05	55% 187-153 (340)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$13.48	$6.54	-$6.94	61% 15751-10045 (25796)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 88¢	$8.8	$3.9	-$4.9	61% 14659-9189 (23848)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$2.2	$3.9	+$1.7	60% 11636-7873 (19509)

RadioCCOD

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$551.29

PnL

+$387.91

Record

—

4-7 (11)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Invested

$313.16

Value

$261.03

PnL

-$52.13

Record

50%

1261-1281 (2542)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$491.23

Value

$133.43

PnL

-$91.63

Record

35%

17899-33380 (51279)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$146.64

Value

$129.98

PnL

-$16.66

Record

53%

8083-7183 (15266)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.18

Value

$71.98

PnL

+$6.42

Record

18%

4246-19975 (24221)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.69

Value

$61.61

PnL

+$3.51

Record

27%

6785-18664 (25449)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$47.2

Value

$23.07

PnL

-$24.13

Record

45%

2583-3110 (5693)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$13.78

Value

$12.97

PnL

-$0.81

Record

53%

28943-25862 (54805)

TheWindKnowsmyName<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.15

Value

$12.2

PnL

+$7.05

Record

55%

187-153 (340)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$13.48

Value

$6.54

PnL

-$6.94

Record

61%

15751-10045 (25796)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$4.9

Record

61%

14659-9189 (23848)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$1.7

Record

60%

11636-7873 (19509)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.8%

2.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2538.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

2638.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.