Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Democrats win 11 or more House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 20¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes80¢No20¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$547.66

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 20.1¢

-75% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,511

Combined PnL+$932.57

No4 traders

Total Value$97.73

Total Shares782

Combined PnL-$384.91

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

357h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 33.9¢	$657.29	$515.19	+$338.83	45% 2914-3563 (6477)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 14.7¢	$60.45	$333.53	+$190.26	65% 279-147 (426)
ifyouloveme	Yesavg 40.1¢	$64.09	$241.91	+$177.82	55% 339-278 (617)
AU auros2<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$22.33	$90.32	+$67.99	— 4-0 (4)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 19.4¢	$83	$82.09	+$66.01	27% 7002-19130 (26132)
RA RadioCCOD<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$11.79	$81.38	+$87.68	33% 81-166 (247)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$39.39	$39	-$0.39	14% 513-3102 (3615)
thanksforplayinCTR	Noavg 74.6¢	$145.21	$36.71	-$141.56	56% 624-483 (1107)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$65.6	$16.98	-$63.88	64% 603-333 (936)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.3	$5.29	+$3.99	77% 12520-3844 (16364)
SI SitsToPeeCTR	Noavg 83.4¢	$443.94	$5.04	-$179.08	60% 759-515 (1274)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$657.29

Value

$515.19

PnL

+$338.83

Record

45%

2914-3563 (6477)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$60.45

Value

$333.53

PnL

+$190.26

Record

65%

279-147 (426)

ifyouloveme

Yes

Invested

$64.09

Value

$241.91

PnL

+$177.82

Record

55%

339-278 (617)

auros2<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.33

Value

$90.32

PnL

+$67.99

Record

—

4-0 (4)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$83

Value

$82.09

PnL

+$66.01

Record

27%

7002-19130 (26132)

RadioCCOD<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.79

Value

$81.38

PnL

+$87.68

Record

33%

81-166 (247)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$39.39

Value

$39

PnL

-$0.39

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

thanksforplayinCTR

Invested

$145.21

Value

$36.71

PnL

-$141.56

Record

56%

624-483 (1107)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Invested

$65.6

Value

$16.98

PnL

-$63.88

Record

64%

603-333 (936)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$3.99

Record

77%

12520-3844 (16364)

SitsToPeeCTR

Invested

$443.94

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$179.08

Record

60%

759-515 (1274)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

357h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$359.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

459.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.