Will Democrats sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 64¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$14.22

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 64¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,206

Combined PnL-$35.18

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,008

Combined PnL+$49.4

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

769h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 63.9¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	-$18.54	53% 7652-6774 (14426)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 36.3¢	$854.09	$870.37	+$16.28	71% 6976-2782 (9758)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 63.3¢	$2.7K	$514.9	-$2.2	45% 2390-2958 (5348)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 36.5¢	$386.74	$392.45	+$5.71	54% 26686-22406 (49092)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 63.4¢	$102.43	$100.22	-$2.22	59% 10657-7345 (18002)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 26.6¢	$135.82	$97.87	+$12.04	48% 6872-7509 (14381)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 67.6¢	$101.56	$93.12	-$8.43	53% 21911-19053 (40964)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.1¢	$65.47	$75.52	+$10.05	44% 30-38 (68)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 65.9¢	$64.68	$60.9	-$3.78	79% 11645-3073 (14718)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$34.78	$37.76	+$2.98	51% 2118-2030 (4148)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$73.76	$7.58	+$2.29	74% 12150-4330 (16480)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 62¢	$6.21	$6.21	-$0	57% 17871-13366 (31237)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$2.86	$2.9	+$0.04	50% 725-732 (1457)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 63¢	$518	$1.83	+$0	17% 1059-5142 (6201)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$2,114.05

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$18.54

Record

53%

7652-6774 (14426)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$854.09

Value

$870.37

PnL

+$16.28

Record

71%

6976-2782 (9758)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$2,695.38

Value

$514.9

PnL

-$2.2

Record

45%

2390-2958 (5348)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$386.74

Value

$392.45

PnL

+$5.71

Record

54%

26686-22406 (49092)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$102.43

Value

$100.22

PnL

-$2.22

Record

59%

10657-7345 (18002)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$135.82

Value

$97.87

PnL

+$12.04

Record

48%

6872-7509 (14381)

cigarettes

Invested

$101.56

Value

$93.12

PnL

-$8.43

Record

53%

21911-19053 (40964)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.47

Value

$75.52

PnL

+$10.05

Record

44%

30-38 (68)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$64.68

Value

$60.9

PnL

-$3.78

Record

79%

11645-3073 (14718)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.78

Value

$37.76

PnL

+$2.98

Record

51%

2118-2030 (4148)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.76

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$2.29

Record

74%

12150-4330 (16480)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.21

Value

$6.21

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

17871-13366 (31237)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

725-732 (1457)

WarriorH

Invested

$518

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

1059-5142 (6201)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

769h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.9%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.