Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Democrats sweep the Iowa Senate and Governor elections?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 42¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$52.24
36.3¢ → 41.5¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
137h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $1.1K | $607.72 | +$0.13 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59¢ | $447.84 | $447.87 | -$30.05 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.9¢ | $163.48 | $159.85 | +$30.18 | |
 ChungvicularCTR | Yesavg 36¢ | $340.76 | $369.15 | +$52.06 | 46% 49-57 (106) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $25.6 | $24.96 | -$0.64 | 73% 6739-2446 (9185) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 56.6¢ | $50.27 | $23.6 | +$0.96 | 39% 161-248 (409) |
GG GGLPLCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $2.72 | $2.59 | -$0.13 | 50% 685-679 (1364) |
Invested
$1,073.19
Value
$607.72
PnL
+$0.13
Record
36%
15698-27712 (43410)
Both legs:
ChungvicularCTRInvested
$340.76
Value
$369.15
PnL
+$52.06
Record
46%
49-57 (106)
Invested
$25.6
Value
$24.96
PnL
-$0.64
Record
73%
6739-2446 (9185)
Invested
$50.27
Value
$23.6
PnL
+$0.96
Record
39%
161-248 (409)
Invested
$2.72
Value
$2.59
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
685-679 (1364)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.