Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $123 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$123.38
-$149.64
3.6¢ → 0.7¢
-82% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
719h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
7 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PMTraderAdam<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $46.33 | $48.97 | +$2.64 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $44.68 | $44.63 | -$0.05 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
QM QMG-CORECTR | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $136.36 | $19.5 | -$116.86 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $23.18 | $9.44 | -$35.86 | 36% 16059-28074 (44133) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.35 | $0.85 | +$0.5 | 50% 969-986 (1955) |
PMTraderAdam<$100Invested
$46.33
Value
$48.97
PnL
+$2.64
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
Invested
$44.68
Value
$44.63
PnL
-$0.05
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$136.36
Value
$19.5
PnL
-$116.86
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$23.18
Value
$9.44
PnL
-$35.86
Record
36%
16059-28074 (44133)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$0.35
Value
$0.85
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
969-986 (1955)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.