Will DeepSeek have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of November 9?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $221 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$220.64
-$0.65
99.6¢ → 98.9¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.6¢ | $169.32 | $169.49 | +$0.17 | 30% 2683-6207 (8890) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.86 | $29.9 | +$0.04 | 51% 4634-4520 (9154) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.78 | -$0.16 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $1.77 | $0.99 | -$0.78 | 41% 3108-4463 (7571) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.4 | $0.48 | +$0.08 | 52% 33-31 (64) |
Invested
$169.32
Value
$169.49
PnL
+$0.17
Record
30%
2683-6207 (8890)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.86
Value
$29.9
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
4634-4520 (9154)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.78
PnL
-$0.16
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$1.77
Value
$0.99
PnL
-$0.78
Record
41%
3108-4463 (7571)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.48
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
33-31 (64)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.