Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $178 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$177.56

Combined PnL

-$24.93

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$174.48

Total Shares175

Combined PnL+$0.07

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.09

Total Shares1,029

Combined PnL-$25

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 99.9¢	$104.9	$104.69	-$0.21	34% 263-518 (781)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$59.52	$59.82	+$0.3	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.97	-$0.02	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$19.06	$1.61	-$12.42	39% 3600-5658 (9258)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$8.28	$0.87	-$7.41	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$3.09	$0.32	-$2.76	42% 2627-3655 (6282)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.11	$0.12	-$1	16% 22-118 (140)
iutwpfalCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$0.11	-$0.9	— 12-4 (16)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.06	-$0.51	12% 20-144 (164)

godblessme2026

Invested

$104.9

Value

$104.69

PnL

-$0.21

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$59.52

Value

$59.82

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.97

PnL

-$0.02

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.06

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$12.42

Record

39%

3600-5658 (9258)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.28

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$7.41

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.09

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$2.76

Record

42%

2627-3655 (6282)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$1

Record

16%

22-118 (140)

iutwpfalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.9

Record

—

12-4 (16)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.51

Record

12%

20-144 (164)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.