Will Debora Shoquist be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $481 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$481.42

Combined PnL

$6.67

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 99.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$480.99

Total Shares483

Combined PnL+$10.49

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.43

Total Shares85

Combined PnL-$3.82

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802	Noavg 96¢	$288	$298.5	+$10.5	—
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.5¢	$105.53	$105.53	+$0	53% 1614-1416 (3030)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$49.73	$49.73	-$0.01	32% 2873-6242 (9115)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$20.28	$20.28	-$0.01	46% 477-554 (1031)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$6.97	$6.96	-$0	79% 473-126 (599)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.33	$0.27	-$0.05	13% 28-182 (210)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.3¢	$3.86	$0.1	-$3.76	41% 3164-4511 (7675)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.06	$0.05	-$0.01	42% 13-18 (31)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802

Invested

$288

Value

$298.5

PnL

+$10.5

Record

—

Bigggggggg

Invested

$105.53

Value

$105.53

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1614-1416 (3030)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$49.73

Value

$49.73

PnL

-$0.01

Record

32%

2873-6242 (9115)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$20.28

Value

$20.28

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

477-554 (1031)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$6.97

Value

$6.96

PnL

-$0

Record

79%

473-126 (599)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.05

Record

13%

28-182 (210)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.86

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$3.76

Record

41%

3164-4511 (7675)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.