Will David Lisnard win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $818 held · ends Apr 18, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Apr 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$818.32

Combined PnL

$10.8

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 97.8¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$796.91

Total Shares807

Combined PnL-$1.52

Yes3 traders

Total Value$21.41

Total Shares765

Combined PnL+$12.32

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 97.9¢	$309.11	$310.72	+$1.61	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.2¢	$170.45	$169.03	-$1.42	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
GO god83743894	Noavg 98.5¢	$106.37	$106.3	-$0.07	46% 10278-11960 (22238)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$78.94	$78.72	-$0.7	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$69.51	$68.88	-$0.63	31% 3445-7743 (11188)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$29.82	$29.52	-$0.26	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
JO JordanMooney	Noavg 97.5¢	$136.49	$22.74	+$0.1	36% 2007-3593 (5600)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$7	$11.24	+$4.23	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$2	$10.09	+$8.09	18% 4276-20026 (24302)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.84	-$0.14	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99¢	$1.17	$1.16	-$0.01	32% 2469-5347 (7816)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yes	$0.08	$0.08	+$0	61% 14825-9293 (24118)

donthackme

Invested

$309.11

Value

$310.72

PnL

+$1.61

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$170.45

Value

$169.03

PnL

-$1.42

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

god83743894

Invested

$106.37

Value

$106.3

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

10278-11960 (22238)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$78.94

Value

$78.72

PnL

-$0.7

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$69.51

Value

$68.88

PnL

-$0.63

Record

31%

3445-7743 (11188)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$29.52

PnL

-$0.26

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

JordanMooney

Invested

$136.49

Value

$22.74

PnL

+$0.1

Record

36%

2007-3593 (5600)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$11.24

PnL

+$4.23

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$10.09

PnL

+$8.09

Record

18%

4276-20026 (24302)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$0.14

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$0.01

Record

32%

2469-5347 (7816)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

14825-9293 (24118)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.