Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will David Amsalem be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $293 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 67%
$292.94
$188.98
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BiggggggggCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $8.05 | $158.4 | +$150.35 | 52% 1614-1484 (3098) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.8¢ | $345.94 | $32.38 | +$24 | 47% 4803-5424 (10227) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $71.05 | $29.87 | -$11.26 | 40% 3231-4852 (8083) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $22.78 | $22.78 | +$0 | 40% 1474-2196 (3670) |
GO godblessme2026CTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $271.8 | $22.78 | +$19.94 | 26% 116-337 (453) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $16.8 | -$3.16 | 53% 6040-5408 (11448) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $50.23 | $6.4 | +$5.77 | 30% 2939-6893 (9832) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.11 | $2.24 | +$2.13 | 35% 512-942 (1454) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.07 | $1.28 | +$1.21 | 37% 3439-5885 (9324) |
Invested
$8.05
Value
$158.4
PnL
+$150.35
Record
52%
1614-1484 (3098)
balthazarInvested
$345.94
Value
$32.38
PnL
+$24
Record
47%
4803-5424 (10227)
Invested
$71.05
Value
$29.87
PnL
-$11.26
Record
40%
3231-4852 (8083)
Invested
$22.78
Value
$22.78
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1474-2196 (3670)
Invested
$271.8
Value
$22.78
PnL
+$19.94
Record
26%
116-337 (453)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$16.8
PnL
-$3.16
Record
53%
6040-5408 (11448)
Invested
$50.23
Value
$6.4
PnL
+$5.77
Record
30%
2939-6893 (9832)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$2.24
PnL
+$2.13
Record
35%
512-942 (1454)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.07
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$1.21
Record
37%
3439-5885 (9324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.