Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $202.5B by November 30?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 83¢ · $197 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$197.36
-$10.84
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoat | Noavg 55.5¢ | $160.91 | $145.05 | -$15.86 | — 0-5 (5) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44.5¢ | $17.84 | $20.05 | +$2.21 | — 3-6 (9) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $12.15 | $13.5 | +$1.35 | — 0-10 (10) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $12.15 | $13.5 | +$1.35 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $5.15 | $5.26 | +$0.11 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
YoungAlphaGoatInvested
$160.91
Value
$145.05
PnL
-$15.86
Record
—
0-5 (5)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$17.84
Value
$20.05
PnL
+$2.21
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$12.15
Value
$13.5
PnL
+$1.35
Record
—
0-10 (10)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$12.15
Value
$13.5
PnL
+$1.35
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5.26
PnL
+$0.11
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.